Selected Publications

The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of shifts in macroeconomic forecasts on the regional budget. In particular, this paper uses a probabilistic model for the Flemish budget to determine the probability distribution of future public revenues and expenditures. Specifically, the range of required cyclical corrections has narrowed after the reform.

This paper reviews the principles underlying fiscal rules and applies them to the current European Union. In the European Union, the supranational Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) should provide the necessary guidance to limit governmental borrowing by member states. In addition to the SGP, European countries are implementing various other fiscal rules that bind central, regional and local governments. We provide empirical estimates of the effect of fiscal rules on fiscal variables in the Euro area.

Work in Progress

Dynamic Scoring

Development of macroeconometric model to account for output and employment effects of fiscal reforms

Fiscal Rule Infringement Risks

Stochastic characterisation of EMU budget discipline with policy uncertainty

The Conundrum of the Council

Whether to leave austerity decisions to an elected politician or an appointed fiscal council

Uncertainty and the Preferred Instrument for Fiscal Discipline

The optimal instrument for fiscal discipline under uncertainty and multitier government